This past year, when the unarmed USNS Impeccable got close to China's nuclear submarine base at Hainan Island, it was surrounded by five Chinese ships.The Chinese thought they had good reason. The Impeccable had numerous submerged listening devices, possibly attempting to record the sonic signatures of China's new nuclear submarines. The capability to identify China's submarine fleet would represent valuable military intelligence for the U.S. Two of the Chinese trawlers attempted to ensnarl the cables of the sonic devices. They failed.

China's rapidly developing nuclear submarine fleet is just one part of its overall military buildup. At this writing, China has the largest active-duty military in the world. This compares to other major military forces: China, 2,250,000; U.S., 1,452,000; India, 1,325,000; and Russia, 1,245,000.

China is attempting to develop a strategic superiority -- military advantage over other major military forces -- particularly in the Asia-Pacific sphere of influence. To evaluate its superiority in that sphere, consider the following: There are 2,266,000 military in all the other Asia-Pacific countries: Formosa, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand and Vietnam. The total Asia-Pacific sphere has the same size military force as China. Japan's constitution limits its military to strictly defensive forces.

As a result, China has the power to intimidate any -- and perhaps all -- Asia-Pacific countries.

Consider the Spratly Islands -- a grouping of more than 100 small islands and reefs located in the South China Sea, about two-thirds of the way from southern Vietnam to the southern Philippines. Their location places some parts of them close to several countries. As a result, their ownership is claimed by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines. All of these countries have small military units located on several of the islands.

The islands, per se, have little tactical value because many of them are under water at high tide, but they offer great strategic value to their would be owner, because the area is:

Rich in fishing grounds.

The world's fourth-largest natural gas bed.

Shipping lanes for more than half of the world's merchant fleet.

According the 1982 United Nations convention, the owner would be allowed to claim the seas 200 miles out from even the most remote islands.

To minimize potential conflicts, all the claiming countries were signatories to the 2002 "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea." These countries pledged to take no action(s) which would "heighten any tension."

In classic Chinese saber-rattling, on March 16, China sent a military patrol ship, maneuvering throughout the islands. When the other signatories objected to this action, China's only response was that it was not a warship (but, neither was the Impeccable). However, with its rapidly expanding navy and its clear intent for intimidation of these much smaller military forces, China slowly is moving forward to cement its claim of ownership of the Spratlys. The Association of South East Asian Nations Treaty countries have become paper tigers, and China reckons the association is too weak and disorganized to intervene. In addition, it is asserting its claim in a manner that no western force or country would consider military intervention.

Don't be surprised if China validates its claim and takes possession of the Spratly Islands in less than a decade -- that is what geopolitics is all about in a multipolar world.

BY RICHARD SCAMEHORN • Guest Column • January 17, 2010